H.R. 9856, Prediction Market Prohibition. Quorum's AI analysis reads it as a trade-off: gains for some, costs for others.
H.R. 9856 · Mixed
What it does
This bill amends federal commodity law to ban prediction markets and event contracts tied to sports, athletic competitions, and casino-style games from being listed or traded on registered exchanges. It does not preempt state law and applies to contracts entered into after enactment. The effect is to prohibit federally regulated platforms from offering these contracts, though it does not criminalize individual participation or state-level regulation.
The analysis did not isolate a single beneficiary class.
The trade-off
Offshore and unregulated prediction markets may absorb trading volume, reducing federal oversight and consumer protections while potentially increasing fraud risk.
Transparency scores 85%, with a medium warning level and no detached riders.
Who is behind it
Filed by Steven Horsford. Cosponsored by Mark Amodei.