Congress bans prediction markets from regulated exchanges—pushing trading underground
H.R. 9856 — Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act · Filed by Steven Horsford (D-NV) · 1 cosponsor · Introduced Jul 22, 2026 · Referred to committee
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What it does
This bill amends the Commodity Exchange Act to ban prediction markets and event contracts tied to sports competitions and casino-style games from being listed, cleared, or traded on registered exchanges. It does not affect state laws that already regulate or prohibit such contracts, and applies to all new contracts entered after the bill's enactment.
Why we flagged it
The bill's operative mechanism is a straightforward prohibition on listing and trading event contracts tied to sports and casino games on registered exchanges. It is a regulatory restriction, not a subsidy, carve-out, or deregulation.
What the text implies
- Banning regulated prediction markets may redirect trading to unregulated offshore platforms or peer-to-peer markets, where consumer protections, price transparency, and fraud prevention are absent or weaker.
- The bill does not prohibit the underlying contracts themselves—only their listing on registered exchanges—so the economic activity may persist outside the regulatory perimeter.
The full analysis lists 5 implications of this text.
Who stands to gain
offshore and unregulated prediction market platforms; peer-to-peer betting networks; state-licensed gambling operators (if state law permits such contracts)