Congress bans itself from betting on political outcomes with inside info
H.R. 9367 — Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act · Filed by Bryan Steil (R-WI) · 8 cosponsors · Introduced Jun 18, 2026 · Reported out
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What it does
This bill prohibits Members of Congress, their spouses, and their dependent children from trading on prediction markets—betting on whether specific government policies will pass, government actions will occur, or political outcomes will happen—if those individuals learned about the event through their congressional service. Violations trigger financial penalties (the greater of $2,000 or 10% of the bet's value, plus any profits realized), which must be paid by the Member or their parent and cannot come from official congressional allowances or campaign funds; unpaid penalties can result in referral to the Department of Justice.
Why we flagged it
The bill's sole operative mechanism is a prohibition on a specific form of trading by federal officeholders and their families, coupled with enforcement penalties. It is a straightforward ethics/conflict-of-interest measure with no hidden riders or secondary purposes.
What the text implies
- The phrase 'any other event which has come to the attention of a covered individual as a result, directly or indirectly, of the service of a Member of Congress' is broad and may capture prediction-market bets on events that a Member learned about through routine public sources (news, constituent mail, committee hearings) rather than through non-public information—creating ambiguity in enforcement.
- The bill does not explicitly define 'prediction market' or specify which platforms are covered (e.g., does it apply only to regulated exchanges, or also to informal betting pools or decentralized platforms?), potentially creating enforcement gaps.
The full analysis lists 4 implications of this text.
Who it affects
This bill directly restricts a form of self-dealing by sitting federal officeholders—using non-public information gained through their official duties to profit from political outcomes. It closes a conflict-of-interest loophole and reinforces the principle that public office should not be a vehicle for personal financial gain from inside knowledge.