Federal ban on sports prediction markets takes effect—states keep control
S. 4160 — Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act · Filed by Adam Schiff (D-CA) · 2 cosponsors · Introduced Mar 23, 2026 · Referred to committee
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What it does
This bill amends federal commodity trading law to ban prediction markets and event contracts tied to sports outcomes and casino-style games from being listed or traded on registered exchanges. It prohibits contracts on any sporting event, athletic competition, or casino game (including simulations) from being cleared or traded through federally regulated commodity exchanges, while preserving states' ability to impose their own restrictions.
Why we flagged it
The bill's sole operative mechanism is a direct prohibition on listing and trading event contracts tied to sports and casino games on federally regulated commodity exchanges. It is a straightforward regulatory restriction, not a subsidy, carve-out, or deregulation.
What the text implies
- State-regulated prediction markets and sports betting platforms may continue operating under state law, creating a two-tier system where federal exchanges are barred but state-licensed operators remain legal.
- The prohibition applies only to 'registered entities' (federally regulated exchanges), leaving unregistered or offshore platforms technically outside the scope, potentially driving trading to less-regulated venues.
- Existing contracts entered before enactment are not explicitly addressed; the bill's applicability clause covers only new contracts, leaving ambiguity about settlement or wind-down of pre-existing positions.
- The definition of 'casino-style game' includes 'any simulation' of casino games, which may capture synthetic or derivative contracts that reference casino outcomes without being traditional gambling instruments.
Section numbers refer to the bill text the analysis read — linked under Primary records below.
Who it affects
Citizens lose access to a legal trading mechanism for event contracts, which may reduce speculative risk for some but also eliminates a form of legal market participation and information aggregation. The bill does not criminalize personal betting or state-regulated gambling, only federal exchange trading, so impact depends on whether citizens view prediction markets as a right or a harm.
Who stands to gain
- State-regulated sports betting operators and casinos (by eliminating federal exchange competition)
- Offshore prediction market platforms (by default, if unregistered entities fall outside the prohibit
Named in the bill
Commodity Exchange Act, Section 5c(c), Registered entities (federally regulated commodity exchanges), State gambling regulators, CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)
Where it stands
2 cosponsors: 1 Democrats, 1 Republicans.
- Mar 23, 2026 — Introduced · Congress.gov: “Introduced in Senate”
- Mar 23, 2026 — Referred to Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry · Congress.gov: “Read twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry”
Dates and quoted wording are Congress.gov's action record; the timeline shows status changes, not every procedural step.
Money around this bill
13 lobbying clients named this bill on 13 disclosure filings across 1 quarter, Jun 2026 to Jun 2026. Those filings disclosed $1,412,000 in lobbying spend. A filing names 9 bills on average, so that figure is what each filing reported, not a share belonging to this bill.
More lobbying clients named this bill than 94% of bills with at least one filing.
Adam Schiff, the sponsor, reported $54,400 in PAC receipts in the 2026 cycle.
- American Gaming Association — $660,000 on 1 filing
- Intralot. Inc. — $120,000 on 1 filing
- Bally's Corporation — $90,000 on 1 filing
- Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma — $80,000 on 1 filing
- Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe Indians — $80,000 on 1 filing
Lobbying Disclosure Act filings through Jul 20, 2026. A filing shows who paid to lobby on a bill it names, not what changed.
How this was measured
Analysis — Quorum's AI read the bill text published by Congress.gov (1,704 characters) on Apr 14, 2026. Section numbers in the findings refer to that text, linked below; transparency and hidden-provision scores are compared against the median of 16,222 analysed bills.
Status and sponsors — Congress.gov's bill record — actions, committee referrals and cosponsors — loaded nightly. The timeline shows status changes, not every procedural action.
Money — Senate Lobbying Disclosure Act filings whose specific-issue field names this bill for quarters ending Jun 2026 to Jun 2026. A filing's amount is reported whole beside the median number of bills a filing names; it is never divided across them. PAC receipts are FEC-reported contributions to the sponsor's candidate committee in the 2026 cycle.
As of — lobbying records through Jul 20, 2026 · page rendered 2026-10-20.
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