Congress bans itself from betting on politics—with loopholes for family.

What it does

This bill prohibits federal officials—Members of Congress, the President, Vice President, senior executive-branch employees (GS-15 and above), military officers (O-7 and above), judges, and their spouses and dependent children—from trading on prediction markets that bet on political outcomes. Violations trigger a 10% fee on the transaction value plus disgorgement of profits, payable to the Treasury, and the penalties cannot be paid from official allowances or campaign funds. Ethics offices must publish enforcement records.

Why we flagged it

The bill's core mechanism is a blanket prohibition on prediction-market trading by federal officials and their families, paired with financial penalties and mandatory disclosure. This is a straightforward ethics/anti-corruption measure, not a subsidy, deregulation, or commemorative act.

What the text implies

• The bill does not define 'prediction market' or 'specific political event' with precision, leaving enforcement discretion to ethics offices and creating potential for inconsistent application or over-reach.
• Spouses and dependent children of covered officials are prohibited from trading even if they have no access to inside information, potentially restricting the financial autonomy of family members who are not themselves government employees.

The full analysis lists 5 implications of this text.

Who it affects

The bill restricts government officials' ability to profit from insider knowledge of political events, reducing conflicts of interest and the incentive for officials to manipulate outcomes for personal gain. Citizens benefit from reduced corruption risk and restored public trust in government impartiality, though the practical enforcement and scope of 'prediction markets' remain to be clarified.