Congress bans itself from betting on politics—with loopholes for family.

What it does

This bill prohibits federal officials—Members of Congress, the President, Vice President, senior executive-branch employees (GS-15 and above), military officers (O-7 and above), judges, and their spouses and dependent children—from trading on prediction markets that bet on political outcomes. Violations trigger a 10% fee on the transaction value plus disgorgement of profits, payable to the Treasury, and the penalties cannot be paid from official allowances or campaign funds. Ethics offices must publish enforcement records.

Why we flagged it

The bill's core mechanism is a blanket prohibition on prediction-market trading by federal officials and their families, paired with financial penalties and mandatory disclosure. This is a straightforward ethics/anti-corruption measure, not a subsidy, deregulation, or commemorative act.

What the text implies

• The bill does not define 'prediction market' or 'specific political event' with precision, leaving enforcement discretion to ethics offices and creating potential for inconsistent application or over-reach.
• Spouses and dependent children of covered officials are prohibited from trading even if they have no access to inside information, potentially restricting the financial autonomy of family members who are not themselves government employees.
• The 10% fee structure may be insufficient deterrent for high-value trades; a wealthy official betting $1M on an election outcome pays only $100K in penalties, which could be absorbed as a cost of doing business.
• Publication of enforcement records may create a chilling effect on legitimate political speech or investment by family members, or conversely, may be too vague to deter sophisticated traders using shell entities or third-party intermediaries.
• The bill does not address prediction markets operated outside the U.S. or through decentralized/blockchain platforms, potentially creating enforcement gaps.

Section numbers refer to the bill text the analysis read — linked under Primary records below.

Who it affects

The bill restricts government officials' ability to profit from insider knowledge of political events, reducing conflicts of interest and the incentive for officials to manipulate outcomes for personal gain. Citizens benefit from reduced corruption risk and restored public trust in government impartiality, though the practical enforcement and scope of 'prediction markets' remain to be clarified.

Named in the bill

Members of Congress, President, Vice President, Executive Branch Officers (GS-15+), Military Officers (O-7+), Judicial Officers, Office of Government Ethics, Supervising Ethics Offices, Prediction Markets (unnamed platforms/operators)

Where it stands

27 cosponsors: 14 Republicans, 13 Democrats.

• Mar 25, 2026 — Introduced · Congress.gov: “Introduced in House”
• Mar 25, 2026 — Referred to House Committee on the Judiciary and House Committee on House Administration · Congress.gov: “Referred to the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, and in addition to the Committees on House…”

Dates and quoted wording are Congress.gov's action record; the timeline shows status changes, not every procedural step.

Money around this bill

6 lobbying clients named this bill on 6 disclosure filings across 1 quarter, Jun 2026 to Jun 2026. Those filings disclosed $350,000 in lobbying spend. A filing names 14 bills on average, so that figure is what each filing reported, not a share belonging to this bill.

More lobbying clients named this bill than 82% of bills with at least one filing.

Nicole (Nikki) Budzinski, the sponsor, reported $1,267,485 in PAC receipts in the 2026 cycle.

• Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma — $80,000 on 1 filing
• Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe Indians — $80,000 on 1 filing
• Boyd Gaming Corporation — $60,000 on 1 filing
• Boyd Gaming Corporation — $60,000 on 1 filing
• St Regis Mohawk Tribe — $50,000 on 1 filing

Lobbying Disclosure Act filings through Jul 19, 2026. A filing shows who paid to lobby on a bill it names, not what changed.