Congress demands CBO track whether budget predictions actually come true

What it does

This bill requires the Congressional Budget Office to publish annual analyses for 10 years after any major legislation (defined as bills affecting federal spending or revenue by 0.25% of GDP or more) is enacted, comparing actual costs and revenue effects against the CBO's original estimates. If actual results differ from prior estimates by 10% or more, the CBO must report to Congress explaining the discrepancy.

Why we flagged it

The bill's sole operative mechanism is a transparency mandate: requiring the CBO to publish retrospective analyses of major legislation's actual fiscal performance against prior estimates, with mandatory congressional reporting of material discrepancies. This is a procedural accountability measure, not a substantive policy change.

What the text implies

• Establishes a 10-year post-enactment tracking requirement that may reveal systematic CBO forecasting errors, potentially undermining confidence in future CBO scoring and complicating legislative negotiations.
• The 10% discrepancy threshold is arbitrary and may exclude material forecast errors below that level, creating a false impression of accuracy when smaller but consistent biases exist.
• Agencies must provide 'such information and assistance as the Director may reasonably request' — a broad delegation that could impose significant compliance burdens on federal departments without appropriated resources.
• No enforcement mechanism or consequence is specified for agencies that fail to cooperate, potentially limiting the CBO's ability to obtain complete data for analysis.

Section numbers refer to the bill text the analysis read — linked under Primary records below.

Who it affects

Citizens and Congress gain concrete information about whether major legislation performed as predicted, enabling better-informed future legislative decisions and holding budget forecasters accountable for accuracy. The bill imposes no new restrictions on citizens' rights or remedies, only transparency obligations on a federal agency.

Named in the bill

Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Congress, Federal agencies, Department of the Treasury

Where it stands

22 cosponsors: 22 Republicans.

• Apr 7, 2025 — Introduced · Congress.gov: “Introduced in House”
• Apr 7, 2025 — Referred to House Committee on the Budget · Congress.gov: “Referred to the House Committee on the Budget”

Dates and quoted wording are Congress.gov's action record; the timeline shows status changes, not every procedural step.