Congress bans wildfire betting on regulated markets to block perverse profit incentives
H.R. 10109 — Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act · Filed by Michael Baumgartner (R-WA) · Introduced Aug 17, 2026 · Referred to committee
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What it does
This bill prohibits prediction markets and derivatives exchanges from listing or trading contracts that bet on wildfire events—including their ignition, spread, intensity, damage, or casualties. It directs the Attorney General to review existing federal criminal and civil laws to assess whether they adequately address intentional wildfire-setting or insider trading for profit from wildfire bets, and to recommend new legislation if gaps exist.
Why we flagged it
The bill's core function is to remove a specific class of financial contracts from federally regulated markets on public-safety grounds, not to regulate wildfire response itself or to impose new criminal penalties—those are secondary review directives.
What the text implies
- The prohibition applies only to federally registered entities; offshore prediction markets and unregulated platforms remain legal, potentially shifting trading to less-transparent venues and complicating enforcement.
- The bill does not criminalize wildfire-event betting itself—only its listing on registered exchanges—meaning individuals could still place such wagers through unregulated intermediaries or peer-to-peer arrangements.
The full analysis lists 4 implications of this text.
Who it affects
The bill removes a perverse financial incentive that could motivate arson or exploitation of emergency information, and prevents federally regulated markets from facilitating gambling on community destruction. The review mechanism creates accountability for enforcement gaps without imposing direct costs on ordinary citizens.